Bullish & Buy a Dip to 142.79. Risk is 142.02
Our bearish call was initially confirmed last week as investors sold Bunds by near to ¾-point. However for a 2nd week in a row, those initial losses attracted buying interest and this time demand was significantly stronger. A turnaround of 300-tics meant that the previous week's entire downside was reversed, with an important 50% of Aug 3rd's downside corrected. Although the week's highs, above 144.00 were not held momentum is increasingly positive and our call is therefore Bullish but, given overbought extremes, to leave room to Buy a Dip to 142.79, half of last week's gains. The risk is 142.02 with confirmation of this forecast being a move beyond Friday's 144.13 top. Prices and sentiment should then focus on 145.17, the 4 week top, or even towards, but probably not as high as, 146.26, July's peak.
The risk to this call is a move below 142.02, last Wednesday's open, indicating that buying pressure has stalled and reversed targeting 141.14, last week's bottom.
Risk to either break is by no more than 50 tics.